POSTED: November 12, 2009 - 4:23 pm
CATEGORIES: MMA, International
Randy Couture (16-10) vs. Brandon Vera (14-3)
He's 46 but he's still going strong. Randy Couture will once again move down to light heavyweight, a division where he has experienced great success capturing two championships. The first time around, Couture made the drop to 205 pounds after losing back-to-back contests against Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez at heavyweight. This time, he is making the move after losing to competition that is equally if not more dangerous. His opponents? Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The losses do not tell the whole story as Couture fought resiliently in both outings and seemed on the verge of dispatching the gargantuan former pro wrestler in his UFC return before a straight shot to the back of the head dropped "The Natural" to the canvas. In his next fight, Couture dropped a hard-fought unanimous decision to Nogueira in a "fight of the year" candidate. While a 16-10 record hardly has people raving, it is the quality of Couture's performances that makes him one of the sport's all-time greats.
Against Brandon Vera, he finds himself in a unique scenario as both fighters are unranked at light heavyweight and neither man can really afford a loss to remain a threat in the star-studded division.
Couture's strengths are well-documented. His dirty boxing, ground and pound and Greco-Roman wrestling are among his best traits, although his resilience and ability to overcome odds are equally noteworthy. Whenever Couture is counted out, he surprises his critics. Just ask Tim Sylvia or Gabriel Gonzaga, both of whom fell victim to Couture's wrath in 2007.
Many pundits are already discrediting Couture and jumping to the conclusion that Vera will outclass the Xtreme Couture founder with his muay thai base. But Vera has a plethora of other tools working in his favour as well. He's younger and quicker than Couture, his Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills are underrated and most importantly, he has improved quite a bit since his move down to light heavyweight. Couture, however, possesses the experience edge and his gameplanning for fights is among the best in the business.
By utilizing MMA math, Couture should win because he handled Tim Sylvia with ease in his return from retirement, while Vera struggled against Sylvia when the two met at UFC 77. But history has shown that MMA math is not a clear indicator of who will win a fight.
What Vera needs to do to win is use his reach advantage to punish Couture standing and keep his distance. If Couture gets his hands around Vera, he could take him down and administer some good old-fashioned ground and pound. In fact, Lesnar would have been on his back when he fought Couture had he not grabbed onto the chain-linked fence in round one.
Both fighters will be hungry for a win. Couture needs to avenge back-to-back losses. Vera, who has been outperformed in big fight situations, needs to prove himself against a top-tier fighter.
When it is all said and done, grit, determination and experience will prevail.
Verdict: Couture via Decision
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Mike Swick (14-2) vs. Dan Hardy (22-6)
No disrespect to either fighter, but talk of the winner of this fight challenging Georges St-Pierre for the welterweight title is laughable. Neither man is ready for a title shot, but that doesn't change the fact that this fight could be a barnburner.
The smart move for UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is to put the winner of this fight against a legitimate opponent. Some names that come to mind include Matt Hughes, Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck. Neither man has me convinced they are much better than a Matt Serra, Paul Daley, Martin Kampmann or Carlos Condit, let alone can they hang with one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world today.
Regardless of their credibility as welterweight title contenders, both are very capable strikers in both offensive and defensive situations. If Swick can control the tempo and use his speed to fluster the British fan favourite, he can win this fight by TKO or decision. Hardy struggled with Marcus Davis in his last fight when they tangled on the mat and Swick may overwhelm "The Outlaw" with ground and pound if the fight goes down to the floor.
However, I'm going out on a limb and picking Hardy to use his counterpunching to KO Swick in the third round. If this fight turns into a slugfest, I give Hardy the slight edge.
Verdict: Hardy via KO, Round 3
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Michael Bisping (17-2) vs. Denis Kang (32-11-1)
This is a compelling fight for Bisping coming off the toughest loss of his career, a brutal knockout at the hands of Dan Henderson at UFC 100.
Kang was highly touted coming into the promotion before getting caught in a submission by Alan Belcher in his debut. Even with a win over Xavier Foupa-Pokam at UFC 97, Kang is in a position where he needs to perform well to remain a force at 185 pounds.
With extensive training at American Top Team and Tristar Gym in Montreal, Kang is one of Canada's most promising fighters. His opponent, who trains at Wolfslair Academy, is hoping to erase the memory of a loss he describes as "embarrassing," but little does he know that Kang is equally capable, hungry and tenacious.
Bisping possesses notable strengths, including speed, solid boxing and an underrated ground game. However, many fighters and trainers that I have spoken to about Bisping, including Jason Miller and Shawn Tompkins, all describe the confident Brit as "overhyped."
It's do or die for the UFC's top British draw. He is expected to receive a rousing ovation for his homecoming, but I predict he's in for a tougher fight than he expects against the well-rounded PRIDE veteran.
Verdict: Kang via Decision
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James Wilks (6-2) vs. Matt Brown (9-7)
In a lackluster main card fight, TUF 9 winner James Wilks takes on BJJ blue belt and Judo brown belt "The Immortal" Matt Brown.
Training his BJJ with Team Jorge Gurgel, Brown is more seasoned of the two fighters. His recent victims include Pete Sell, Ryan Thomas and Matt Arroyo. Riding a two-fight winning streak, Brown has all the tools to succeed in mixed martial arts.
Wilks, meanwhile, submitted DaMarques Johnson in the first round to win "The Ultimate Fighter 9" in June. He has submitted three of his last four victims, but that trend is unlikely to continue against Brown.
Nicknamed "Lightning," Wilks will need to secure lightning-quick takedowns and force Brown to work off his back in order to win. His only hope is to exploit some weaknesses in Brown's ground game.
Brown looked relentless in his last fight, completely obliterating Pete Sell and sending him out of the UFC. While he is prone to slick submissions, I have to give this fight to Brown because he will have the edge in the striking department and will be able to punish Wilks standing.
Verdict: Brown via TKO, Round 1
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Ross Pearson (9-3) vs. Aaron Riley (28-11-1)
In another main card fight that has fans scratching their heads, TUF 9 lightweight winner Ross Pearson has his hands full against the always-game veteran Aaron Riley.
Both guys are well-rounded in the cage and it could come down to a razor-thin decision with the hometown hero Pearson winning over the judges.
Riley, who recently won decisions over Shane Nelson and Jorge Gurgel after returning to the UFC, loves to stand and trade. Pearson will likely engage him on the feet and this one will be a back-and-forth battle. The only big difference between the two fighters is the level of competition that Riley has been facing since 1997, in comparison to Pearson's competition since entering the sport seven years later.
I have to give the edge to the more experienced Riley, but judges will have the last laugh.
Verdict: Riley via Split Decision

